In the midst of recent turmoil both on and off Capitol Hill, it’s evident that Republicans have a singular dominant leader: Donald Trump. Despite Mitch McConnell and Mike Johnson grappling with managing their respective conferences, Trump, the party’s presumptive nominee for the third consecutive election, is actively asserting his influence over Washington’s policy discussions, while some colleagues openly question the leadership abilities of McConnell and Johnson.
McConnell faced open criticism from Republican colleagues after backing a bipartisan border deal that failed in the Senate last week, with all but four Senate Republicans voting against it, including McConnell himself. However, employing his seasoned strategic skills, McConnell managed to turn defeat into victory by rallying 17 Republican votes to advance a $95 billion national security package. This package would allocate funds for aiding U.S. allies in Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as replenishing depleted U.S. military stockpiles.
Meanwhile, Johnson, who assumed the role of House Speaker less than four months ago, encountered setbacks in his attempts to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and pass a stand-alone bill for aiding Israel in the narrowly divided House.
Amidst this, Trump has solidified his control over the party, ousting Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel, who resisted calls to end the presidential primary and faced criticism for election losses and fundraising struggles. Trump’s dominance is evident as he overwhelmingly leads in polls against his sole remaining opponent, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Recently, Trump secured a significant number of delegates in Nevada’s GOP caucuses, excluding Haley, and aims to decisively defeat her in her home state on February 24, potentially securing the nomination by mid-March. Additionally, Trump is poised to assert more authority over the party’s fundraising efforts, according to insiders familiar with the discussions.
Michael Whatley, head of the North Carolina Republican Party and a vocal supporter of Trump’s debunked claims of election fraud, is reportedly the top candidate for RNC chair. GOP strategist Scott Reed summed up the tumultuous week, highlighting Haley’s unexpected loss to “none of these candidates” in Nevada’s primary and concluding, “We live in the times of Trump…He continues to maintain a firm grip on the party, and we should expect more of the same.”
This unrest underscores Trump’s dominance within the Republican Party, yet it does not indicate party unity. The GOP has struggled to push its own agenda in Congress or strike favorable deals with President Biden. In the House, the failure to impeach Mayorkas and the defeat of the Israel aid bill, which required a two-thirds majority, was a setback for Johnson.
House Republicans expressed astonishment, stating that Johnson and his team should have ensured they had enough votes before bringing the measures to the floor. Representative Ralph Norman remarked, “Is it that hard? It’s not that hard to know the votes.” Representative Bob Good, chair of the House Freedom Caucus, called it a mistake by the speaker.
With a slim majority, Johnson has relied on Democratic support to pass crucial legislation since assuming the speakership in October. However, as he continues to bypass the right wing of his party, his hold on power could become more precarious. A House rule allows a single lawmaker to force a vote to remove the speaker—a rule invoked last year to oust Kevin McCarthy from the role.
“Democracy can be messy,” Johnson remarked to reporters on Capitol Hill following the unsuccessful votes. “With divided government and a narrow margin, every vote matters.” He attributed the failure of the Israel bill to Democrats withholding support and assured that the House would revisit Mayorkas’s impeachment, expressing confidence in its eventual passage.
In the Senate, McConnell faces increasing vocal criticism, although his detractors lack clear plans or sufficient votes to challenge his leadership. Senator Ted Cruz lambasted McConnell for what he deemed a significant boost to the Democratic Senate committee, suggesting the need for a leader more aligned with the American people. When Elon Musk advocated for McConnell’s departure on social media, Senator Mike Lee echoed the sentiment, cautioning against jeopardizing team unity. McConnell brushed off the criticism, noting that he has consistently faced similar detractors throughout his tenure in Senate GOP leadership. “Senator Cruz is not among my admirers,” he quipped during his weekly press briefing.
Since launching his presidential campaign in 2015, Trump has made immigration a central focus of the GOP agenda. The ongoing border crisis has only intensified this focus, with polls of Republican voters in early nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire indicating it as a top concern. Trump and many conservative senators were aligned in opposing the border deal during Senate negotiations, culminating in Trump’s warning that it would be detrimental to the Republican Party. Subsequently, the deal was abandoned.
Biden, facing criticism for the border situation, now seeks to shift blame onto Republicans for failing to address the issue. With polling numbers trailing his predecessor in key battleground states, Biden aims to capitalize on the GOP’s recent disarray. Meanwhile, McConnell’s detractors argue that his stance is out of touch with most Republican voters, and tensions between Trump and McConnell could pose challenges if Trump returns to the presidency.
Efforts by Trump to replace McConnell, including support for Senator Rick Scott, have so far been unsuccessful, dating back to the fallout over the 2020 election results. Despite some signs of the party distancing itself from Trump after disappointing midterm elections, he has regained influence, partly due to what Republicans see as politically motivated legal actions against him.
According to a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Trump currently enjoys an 84% favorability rating among Republican voters. In contrast, only 53% of GOP voters expressed approval for the job Republicans are doing in Congress, while 77% of Democrats approved of their party’s lawmakers’ performance in Congress. Jason Miller, a prominent Trump adviser, acknowledged the natural challenges faced by a party not in control of the White House. He emphasized that Trump’s significant influence should come as no surprise, asserting, “President Trump has been the leader of the Republican Party since his entrance into the political arena in 2015, whether Washington insiders acknowledge it or not.”
